AI accelerates drug discovery state Ark Invest in their podcast The Brainstorm [1] The partnership between GlaxoSmithKline and Relation Therapeutics highlights the promise of AI in revolutionising drug development processes, reducing costs, and improving efficiency. The key data that the Ark Invest Sam Korous, Nick Grous and Brett Winton suggest AI will make drug discovery faster (half the time, less expensive, 8 times higher ROI, and more targeted. Return of investment in existing drugs is very poor – only 4% compounded return. It is not good investment.
Costs of Existing Drug Discovery
- Costs for drug discovery is $2.4 billion to get a new drug on the market, and it takes 14 years. That means that the company needs to sell at least $600 million each year at peak for the remainder of the drug patent life.
- AI promises to take less than $600 million through the pipeline in about 6 years, which means sales of $100 to $200 million a year will make drugs viable for mass use.
- More likely, it will bind better, and that means less drug will be needed to treat the condition.
- Lower dose means less side effects and wider use.
- There are no specific drugs yet on the market as it is too early. These AI drugs are now in Phase 2.
- In existing drug development, once phase 1 is completed over 50% fail to proceed to further phases due to side effects or low effectiveness,. We have seen lots of mice cancer promising drugs, but they fail when they move to humans.
- Existing drug developers are going through 2 business cycles to get products to market, so they only go after the major diseases.
AI Accelerates Drug Discovery
AI makes drug discovery improved ROI.
- With AI only 12% fail this first time whereas Appinvetiv says only 9.7% get through..
- Given that 70% of the spend goes on things that fail, this means AI drugs have at least a 8 times improvement.
- Traditional drug development
- In the testing phase, get significantly more successful drugs. The question is will there be enough resources in regulatory processes, or are there enough people willing to undertake clinical trial.
- Means can go after illnesses that currently are not worth going after.
Companies that aggressively follow the AI path will outcome traditional companies as they get drugs out in half the time.
Improved Clinical Trial Outcomes
An AI product OPYL, is already providing better trial design and drug progression through clinical trials and can reduce that part of drug discovery by 4 times.
Promise to Cure All Diseases and Extend Life
The front end process of AI is separate from AI providing better health care. Ark estimate there is $10 trillion opportunity to cure rare diseases. Currently those diseases are just treated. Lots of things will come very cheap because of technology and an opportunity to extend life.
Are We Over Medicated
The speakers point out that that 90% of all USA health care is spent on normal chronic diseases with its associated very high administrative health care. Prescription drugs are less than 10% of health care costs.
Hospitals are designed to battle with insurance companies to maximise returns. Meds are much less expensive that surgical procedures. A prescription at the local doctor is much cheaper than crossing the front door of a hospital.
Within a decade, we will have improved AI impacts across all parts of the health industry. From drug discovery, to surgery, to diagnosis. Personalised medicine [3]. More importantly curing disease, not just treating it.
References
- Quantifying Quantum Computing And AI Drug Development | The Brainstorm EP 72 Dec 2024 https://www.ark-invest.com/podcast/the-brainstorm-ep-72
- The potential of AI in drug discovery and its impact on healthcare. Nov 2024 https://appinventiv.com/blog/ai-in-drug-discovery/
- Genomics and Personalized Medicine: What Everyone Needs to Know. Michale Snyder 2016. https://www.amazon.com.au/Genomics-Personalized-Medicine-Everyone-Needs/dp/0190234768
- Relation Therapeutics partners with GSK in history-making collaboration to create new treatments for fibrosis and osteoarthritis 2024 https://www.dcvc.com/news-insights/relation-therapeutics-partners-with-gsk-in-history-making-collaboration-to-create-new-treatments-for-fibrosis-and-osteoarthritis/
