Optimistic Storm: A future powered by Ingenuity. The end of the fossil fuel era is the title of my latest book. Innovation is changing our world faster than imaginable, commercialising innovative technologies faster than most people realise. Disruption is the result of multiple new technologies and new business models. Check out some of the over 250 articles on energy disruption, transportation, food and agriculture.
Change comes from prosperity. We can be optimistic.
Optimistic Storm: Pt 1 Available Now.
Part 1: End of the Fossil fuel era, energy and transportation
Buy directly from author Click Here, or from Amazon Kindle
Part 2: Food to Feed All, Restore our Environment and End Drudgery 1st January 2025
4th Disruption. End of Fossil Fuel Era
Blog Posts – Recent
Scroll through the articles, or the full list is in the footer. Down there at the bottom ↓↓
- Geologic or Gold Hydrogen
Geologic or gold hydrogen has potential to be part of the clean energy transition. Potential LCA and cost is low ($1kg), but there are technological and economic hurdles Co-production of helium with geologic hydrogen could be a key factor in making this technology commercially viable. Research and development may determine the true potential of geologic hydrogen. - NVidia AI Announcements at CES 2025
AI continues to rapidly expand. At CES, 2025 Nvidia announcements include a new AI supercomputer, a powerful video card, next-generation processor for cars and robots. NVidia announced partnerships with Toyota for next model robotasis as well as Aurora, Continental for driverless trucks at scale by 2027. - AI Improves Clinical Trials
AI is transforming clinical trials by predicting success with 90% accuracy. This could lead to fewer trials, better outcomes, and reduced trial times. Companies like OPYL, OpenAI, and Moderna are at the forefront of this AI-driven healthcare revolution. Using 20 years of past clinical trial data, OPYL can improve trial outcomes by 4 to 5 times, reducing costs and improving success.
Why Optimistic Storm? Because change management relies on four core principles and these are :
- Understand Change.
- Plan Change.
- Implement Change.
- Communicate Change.
Change is happening rapidly. Climate change. Renewable energy. Transportation. This period of human existence is one of the great revolutions of the last 20,000 years, and the changes will be as or more profound as previous revolutions. These are somewhat different to the energy transitions.
- First Industrial Revolution 1765
- Second Industrial Revolution 1870.
- Third Industrial Revolution 1969.
- Four – Multiple – End of Fossil Fuel, Food for All, End of Work
This will be more profound than previous. It is the end of the fossil fuel era, with the rise of renewable energy and spell the end of individual ownership of cars to a public transport system on demand. The disruption in food will spell the biggest change to agriculture since we began to farm. The rise of robots will spell the end of dangerous, dirty and drudgery.
Commercialising Innovative Technologies
About 20 years ago, an astute Canadian told me there are 3 reasons people change.
- They make money
- They lose money
- It is the law
The strongest change is when there are 2 factors in play. So change can be sudden. Whenever something is 1/10th of the cost, change will happen. Adoption is often 10 years to get to 1% of the market. Then within a decade, it can hold 80% of the market. Often it is not a 1 to 1 substitution.
Article Perspectives
Check out the various recent blogs. I try to view these subjects from 3 perspectives.
- Technology. Does it work? We know that R&D and scaling of solution will drive up the tech, and decrease costs
- Economics. Are the compelling financial or economic drivers for change? Will these change with R&D or scaling?
- Politics. What are the institutional barriers or the individuals belief systems?
Innovation is never a straight line. And forecasts are often wrong.
Challenges to Transition
The International Energy Agency says the data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions. This in the energy market is also true to other aspects of change over the next 10 years.