Disruption happens when several technologies converge to make an old system obsolete, and this category explains how it unfolds. Our posts draw on thinkers such as Tony Seba, with his three disruptions and eight technologies, and on Tesla’s Masterplan, and they ask why experts so often get it wrong, from the faster horse fallacy to IEA forecasts that were out by seven times. A recurring pattern is that the new technology looks like a toy, grows exponentially, then takes over quickly.
Energy sits at the centre. Posts describe the shift from baseload to dispatchable electricity, exponential growth in batteries, rapid growth of electric vehicles and the fall in fossil fuel use. They argue for wires, not pipes, and ask whether net zero should aim at 97 or 100 percent. Others look at fossil fuel excess profits and the case for redirecting subsidies worth 2 percent of GDP to net zero.
Disruption reaches beyond energy to food, robotic surgery, e-fuels and active transport, and brings changes to society and growing mistrust in science. Read these articles to learn how to recognise a disruption early, avoid the traps of linear forecasts, and understand why the energy transition may be faster than most predict.
Disruption happens when several technologies converge to make an old system obsolete, and this category explains how it unfolds. Our posts draw on thinkers such as Tony Seba, with his three disruptions and eight technologies, and on Tesla’s Masterplan, and they ask why experts so often get it wrong, from the faster horse fallacy to IEA forecasts that were out by seven times. A recurring pattern is that the new technology looks like a toy, grows exponentially, then takes over quickly.
Energy sits at the centre. Posts describe the shift from baseload to dispatchable electricity, exponential growth in batteries, rapid growth of electric vehicles and the fall in fossil fuel use. They argue for wires, not pipes, and ask whether net zero should aim at 97 or 100 percent. Others look at fossil fuel excess profits and the case for redirecting subsidies worth 2 percent of GDP to net zero.
Disruption reaches beyond energy to food, robotic surgery, e-fuels and active transport, and brings changes to society and growing mistrust in science. Read these articles to learn how to recognise a disruption early, avoid the traps of linear forecasts, and understand why the energy transition may be faster than most predict.
Forbes says climate change is not an existential crisis, but its assumptions are demonstrably false. The doomer view says retreat; the optimistic view says innovate. Two slogans spell it out: stop burning rocks, and wires not pipes.
Wartsilar, better known for shipping engines in their modelling says 98% net zero by 2050 is cheaper than 100% WWS by Prof Jacobson. Meanwhile 100% is possible says Prof Mark Jacobson.
RethinkiX says Stellar enegy – 500% is most cost effective for superabundant energy.
Wartsilar fails the fossil fuel argument and keeps about 12,000 TWh of generation in the mix – albeit for just 3% of the electricity generation. The world demands 100% zero emissions, not net zero.
How to provide cost of living help, electrify the grid, and reduce 40% of Australia’s emissions? In 12 months? The govt could step in and provide buy 2 million household batteries for 40GWh. Customers would repay $60 per month interest free through their electricity retailer.
Cost is less than existing programs and subsidies.
Most research shows Mistrust in science increasing over the past decades and primarily driven by political polarization, amplified by partisan media and social media algorithms that spread misinformation, with variation observed across age, rural vs. urban populations, and political affiliations. Was it the nuclear bomb, or Rachael Carson, but mistrust is increasing rapidly.
As Professor Vaclav Smil highlights in “Grand Transitions,” coal, oil, and now solar power have dramatically reshaped transportation and society. Harnessing the sun’s energy promises to end fossil fuel dependency, disrupt industries, and lift billions out of energy poverty.
Globally, renewable energy is the dominant new electricity generation. The USA is followng other countries, particularly China with with over 99.8% electricity generation to come from solar wind and solar in 2024.
Protein from coal – something in science fixtion, yet scientists have grown protein using preceision fermentation using a designer bacteria. With coal as the feedstock, whats next
Exponential battery growth is underway and hideen from most climate change commentaries yet will enable full renewable energy within a decade.
Advent of big batteries changes electricity from synchronus (ie, generate and use) to asynchronous, i.e. store and use to match demand and supply. The grid will change from baseload and peaking to dispatchable renewables and variable renewables.
Disruption to the car market is now inevitable with the rise of electric vehicles globally. An exponential increase in EV manufacture means few internal combustion engine cars after 2026
