Optimistic Storm: A future powered by Ingenuity. The end of the fossil fuel era is the title of my latest book. Innovation is changing our world faster than imaginable, commercialising innovative technologies faster than most people realise. Disruption is the result of multiple new technologies and new business models. Check out some of the over 250 articles on energy disruption, transportation, food and agriculture.

Change comes from prosperity. We can be optimistic.

Optimistic Storm: Pt 1 Available Now.

Part 1: End of the Fossil fuel era, energy and transportation

Buy directly from author Click Here, or from Amazon Kindle

Part 2: Food to Feed All, Restore our Environment and End Drudgery 1st January 2025

Optimistic Storm A future powered by ingenuity

4th Disruption. End of Fossil Fuel Era

Modern Energy changes transportation, food and labour
Changes to energy have led to the change of transport 50 years later. Century long periods means this new renewable energy change will disrupt transportation and bring energy to a billion people in energy poverty.

Blog Posts – Recent

Scroll through the articles, or the full list is in the footer. Down there at the bottom ↓↓

  • fracking techniques for geothermal
    Project Innerspace Geothermal
    Geothermal energy, although currently contributing less than 1% to global energy production, has the potential to supply 140 times the world’s energy demand. Next-generation geothermal, including engineered, advanced, and hybrid systems, can be used for heating, cooling, and power generation . Scaling geothermal requires leveraging the oil and gas industry’s expertise and infrastructure.
  • Fuel and labour costs for large trucks Australia
    Fuel and Labour Truck Costs in Australia
    Fuel costs of large trucks suggest electric class 8 trucks would be economic. Turns out labour costs is the major item. Will humanoid robots or autonomous vehicles reduce operating cost so much that autonomous trucks take over trucking.
  • EV truck uptake surges
    EV Truck Uptake is Surging
    Global electric truck sales are growing with sales in 2024 over 90,000 units and a year-on-year growth rate of almost 80%. Surge is largely driven by China, where sales more than doubled between 2023 and 2024, accounting for over 80% of global sales. China leads the way, but other markets increase electric truck adoption. With Tesla Semi soon to be produced, trucks will surge.

Why Optimistic Storm? Because change management relies on four core principles and these are :

  • Understand Change.
  • Plan Change.
  • Implement Change.
  • Communicate Change.

Change is happening rapidly. Climate change. Renewable energy. Transportation. This period of human existence is one of the great revolutions of the last 20,000 years, and the changes will be as or more profound as previous revolutions. These are somewhat different to the energy transitions.

  • First Industrial Revolution 1765
  • Second Industrial Revolution 1870.
  • Third Industrial Revolution 1969.
  • Four – Multiple – End of Fossil Fuel, Food for All, End of Work

This will be more profound than previous. It is the end of the fossil fuel era, with the rise of renewable energy and spell the end of individual ownership of cars to a public transport system on demand. The disruption in food will spell the biggest change to agriculture since we began to farm. The rise of robots will spell the end of dangerous, dirty and drudgery.

Commercialising Innovative Technologies

About 20 years ago, an astute Canadian told me there are 3 reasons people change.

  • They make money
  • They lose money
  • It is the law

The strongest change is when there are 2 factors in play. So change can be sudden. Whenever something is 1/10th of the cost, change will happen. Adoption is often 10 years to get to 1% of the market. Then within a decade, it can hold 80% of the market. Often it is not a 1 to 1 substitution.

Article Perspectives

Check out the various recent blogs. I try to view these subjects from 3 perspectives.

  • Technology. Does it work? We know that R&D and scaling of solution will drive up the tech, and decrease costs
  • Economics. Are the compelling financial or economic drivers for change? Will these change with R&D or scaling?
  • Politics. What are the institutional barriers or the individuals belief systems?

Innovation is never a straight line. And forecasts are often wrong.

Different views of the future
From RMI, Cleantech Revolution. Engineers could have gone to same university, but ExxonMobil engineers have different perspective than Rystad

Challenges to Transition

The International Energy Agency says the data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions. This in the energy market is also true to other aspects of change over the next 10 years.