Optimistic Storm: A future powered by Ingenuity. The end of the fossil fuel era is the title of my latest book. Innovation is changing our world faster than imaginable, commercialising innovative technologies faster than most people realise. Disruption is the result of multiple new technologies and new business models. Check out some of the over 250 articles on energy disruption, transportation, food and agriculture.

Change comes from prosperity. We can be optimistic.

Optimistic Storm: Books Coming soon

Part 1: End of the Fossil fuel era, energy and transportation in September 2024

Part 2: Food to Feed All, Restore our Environment and End Drudgery November 2024

Optimistic Storm A future powered by ingenuity

    4th Disruption. End of Fossil Fuel Era

    Modern Energy changes transportation, food and labour
    Changes to energy have led to the change of transport 50 years later. Century long periods means this new renewable energy change will disrupt transportation and bring energy to a billion people in energy poverty.

    Blog Posts – Recent

    Scroll through the articles, or the full list is in the footer. Down there at the bottom ↓↓

    • climate change
      3°C Climate Change Costs 18% of GDP
      Recent publications show a 3°C climate change costs 18% of GDP or $38 trillion. The article outlines a three-pronged approach of Mitigation Resilience and Renewal for Climate Change. There are scary changes underway that have a potential to decrease global GDP by 18%. Previously it was thought 1° rise would reduce… Read more: 3°C Climate Change Costs 18% of GDP
    • Batteroes key to end of fossil fuel era
      Batteries End Fossil Fuel Era
      Batteries are essential for the renewable energy transition. They enable storage of excess solar power, reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Tesla’s recent announcement of producing 100 million 4680 batteries highlights the rapid advancements in battery technology. This progress is crucial for a sustainable energy future, for electric transport and grid storage to enable full production by solar and wind for the end of the fossil fuel era
    • hydrogen dead end in China
      Hydrogen Dead End in China
      China is a good comparison of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In Foshan city an H2 tram has been mothball and when you look at all cars and public transport, it is hard to see where the use case for hydrogen is.

    Why Optimistic Storm? Because change management relies on four core principles and these are :

    • Understand Change.
    • Plan Change.
    • Implement Change.
    • Communicate Change.

    Change is happening rapidly. Climate change. Renewable energy. Transportation. This period of human existence is one of the great revolutions of the last 20,000 years, and the changes will be as or more profound as previous revolutions. These are somewhat different to the energy transitions.

    • First Industrial Revolution 1765
    • Second Industrial Revolution 1870.
    • Third Industrial Revolution 1969.
    • Four – Multiple – End of Fossil Fuel, Food for All, End of Work

    This will be more profound than previous. It is the end of the fossil fuel era, with the rise of renewable energy and spell the end of individual ownership of cars to a public transport system on demand. The disruption in food will spell the biggest change to agriculture since we began to farm. The rise of robots will spell the end of dangerous, dirty and drudgery.

    Commercialising Innovative Technologies

    About 20 years ago, an astute Canadian told me there are 3 reasons people change.

    • They make money
    • They lose money
    • It is the law

    The strongest change is when there are 2 factors in play. So change can be sudden. Whenever something is 1/10th of the cost, change will happen. Adoption is often 10 years to get to 1% of the market. Then within a decade, it can hold 80% of the market. Often it is not a 1 to 1 substitution.

    Article Perspectives

    Check out the various recent blogs. I try to view these subjects from 3 perspectives.

    • Technology. Does it work? We know that R&D and scaling of solution will drive up the tech, and decrease costs
    • Economics. Are the compelling financial or economic drivers for change? Will these change with R&D or scaling?
    • Politics. What are the institutional barriers or the individuals belief systems?

    Innovation is never a straight line. And forecasts are often wrong.

    Different views of the future
    From RMI, Cleantech Revolution. Engineers could have gone to same university, but ExxonMobil engineers have different perspective than Rystad

    Challenges to Transition

    The International Energy Agency says the data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions. This in the energy market is also true to other aspects of change over the next 10 years.