Optimistic Storm: A future powered by Ingenuity. The end of the fossil fuel era is the title of my latest book. Innovation is changing our world faster than imaginable, commercialising innovative technologies faster than most people realise. Disruption is the result of multiple new technologies and new business models. Check out some of the over 250 articles on energy disruption, transportation, food and agriculture.
Change comes from prosperity. We can be optimistic.
Optimistic Storm: Pt 1 Available Now.
Part 1: End of the Fossil fuel era, energy and transportation
Buy directly from author Click Here, or from Amazon Kindle
Part 2: Food to Feed All, Restore our Environment and End Drudgery 1st January 2025
4th Disruption. End of Fossil Fuel Era
Blog Posts – Recent
Scroll through the articles, or the full list is in the footer. Down there at the bottom ↓↓
- Tarong Nuclear and Accident Impacts
Nuclear accidents happen Summer thunderstorm patterns from Tarong to the Sunshine Coast means the Coast will be in the firing line of any accident at Tarong. Low level radioactivity causes thyroid cancer for up to 60 years. People and lives are affected for generations and nuclear is not worth the risks - Why USA Leaving Climate Talks is Good
Many argue the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is good news. Wind solar and batteries are so cheap that little fossil fuel electricity is being built even in fossil fuel states. The US risks falling behind China in green technologies, and with substantial reductions in oil consumption from EVs by 2030, fossil fuel exports will plummet, - Low Dose Radiation From Nuclear Accidents
The evidence is clear that nuclear accidents risk polluting large areas with I-131 and Cesium and populations of tens of thousand have increased risk of thyroid cancer. There is no minimum safe exposure, inspite of nuclear advocate misinformation. Nuclear accidents cost billions, and kill thousands indirectly. The risk is simply not worth it.
Why Optimistic Storm? Because change management relies on four core principles and these are :
- Understand Change.
- Plan Change.
- Implement Change.
- Communicate Change.
Change is happening rapidly. Climate change. Renewable energy. Transportation. This period of human existence is one of the great revolutions of the last 20,000 years, and the changes will be as or more profound as previous revolutions. These are somewhat different to the energy transitions.
- First Industrial Revolution 1765
- Second Industrial Revolution 1870.
- Third Industrial Revolution 1969.
- Four – Multiple – End of Fossil Fuel, Food for All, End of Work
This will be more profound than previous. It is the end of the fossil fuel era, with the rise of renewable energy and spell the end of individual ownership of cars to a public transport system on demand. The disruption in food will spell the biggest change to agriculture since we began to farm. The rise of robots will spell the end of dangerous, dirty and drudgery.
Commercialising Innovative Technologies
About 20 years ago, an astute Canadian told me there are 3 reasons people change.
- They make money
- They lose money
- It is the law
The strongest change is when there are 2 factors in play. So change can be sudden. Whenever something is 1/10th of the cost, change will happen. Adoption is often 10 years to get to 1% of the market. Then within a decade, it can hold 80% of the market. Often it is not a 1 to 1 substitution.
Article Perspectives
Check out the various recent blogs. I try to view these subjects from 3 perspectives.
- Technology. Does it work? We know that R&D and scaling of solution will drive up the tech, and decrease costs
- Economics. Are the compelling financial or economic drivers for change? Will these change with R&D or scaling?
- Politics. What are the institutional barriers or the individuals belief systems?
Innovation is never a straight line. And forecasts are often wrong.
Challenges to Transition
The International Energy Agency says the data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions. This in the energy market is also true to other aspects of change over the next 10 years.