Energy breakthroughs drives transportation: History repeats as Prof Vaclav Smil says in his book Grand Transitions: How the Modern World Was Made [7] Past big revolutions came about when there was a new form of energy and, related to energy, a big change in transport. Coal, oil, and now the sun. It is like a tsunami. The wave started 70 years ago, travelled right across the ocean, and now is smashing into the shore. Disrupting incumbents.
- Coal changed the world with steam engines 200 years ago. Steam engines drained coal mines, steam engines replaced Welsh ponies and horse carriages, and opened up continents like the USA.
- A 100 years ago it was oil, leading to cars, trucks and airplanes, changing geopolitics for a century of trade wars, geopolitics bringing billions out of energy poverty, but still leaving 0.8 billion in energy and transport poverty.
- Our current disruption is the end of fossil fuel era. Harnessing just 2 hours of sunlight provides free energy for all 8 billion people, for heating, cooling and transport. No more burning rocks for the first time in a million years.
Disruption Challenges
We see major societal changes. While Prof Smil describes 4 previous transformations including agriculture, populations, energy, and economics, we will just focus on the energy breakthrough.
- Changes in where the wealth comes from.
- There is always resistance to change with debunkers.
- The majority do not see the changes coming and yet it is catastrophic to those who cannot see those changes. Carriage makers were out of jobs and lost their societal status when cars went into mass production.
- It changes the power base in society as the new owners are usually not the new owners. The horse and carriage owners were not steam train Lords The railroad barons were not the car manufacturers.
RethinkX has a great discussion on disruption found on this review of their principles of disruption with 8 technologies for 5 disruptions
Ignorance Is The Currency of This 3rd Disruption
Many don’t realise we are already 70 years from the first practical solar panel from Bell in 1975. By 2030, we will be 70% of the change from fossil fuel and within the decade will have made that complete switch. Just like steam cars from the 1940’s, we will continue to have oil-powered vehicles, but nuclear, oil and coal will be confined to history.
| Energy Period | Years | Energy Source | Transportation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horses | 3500BC-1800 | Wood and grass | Horseback, chariots |
| Horse and carriage | 3500-1700 | Wood and grass Wind | Horse carriage Sailing ships |
| Coal | 1750-1900 | Coal | Steam engine Steam ships |
| Oil | 1905-2030 | Oil Burning 600 years of stored carbon | Cars, buses trucks oil ships airplanes |
| Electricity from Sun | 2010 – 2100 | Capturing technology 2 hours of sunlight | All Transport Including most airplanes |
To Coal from Water and Wood
- The societal change from horses to railways transformed society.
- Industrialisation of cities, as steam engines needed concentration of factories.
- None more so than the USA with its railroads that opened up from east to west.
- Trains united India,
- Enabled wars to be fought across Europe
- Opened up the vast areas for eastern Russia and unified India
To Oil from Coal
- We burn 600 years of stored carbon each year.
- Oil changed cities with the rise of cars to over 1.4 billion globally
- Air transport came to the masses, where a flight is now cheaper from Sydney to London. It takes less than 22 hours compared to a ship in the late 1960’s which took 4 weeks and cost more.
- Rapidly increased emissions with industrialisation of societies
From Oil to Free Energy
- While solar and wind will generate electricity, cheap and reliable storage has been missing for the past 70 years. [1], [2], [3], [4]
- Batteries with a 97% decrease in cost have finally arrived. [5]
- Some thought hydrogen or pumped hydro would be the cheap storage. Chemical batteries has finally enabled this third transition. Transport is following.
- The disruption is as much from corporate ownership to individuals as Bill Nussey from Freeing Energy says.[6]
References for Energy Breakthroughs Drives Transportation
[1] opinion contributor Mark Z. Jacobson, ‘No miracle tech needed: How to switch to renewables now and lower costs doing it’, The Hill. Accessed: Aug. 10, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3539703-no-miracle-tech-needed-how-to-switch-to-renewables-now-and-lower-costs-doing-it/
[2] C. Breyer et al., ‘On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research’, IEEE Access, vol. 10, pp. 78176–78218, 2022, doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3193402.
[3] M. Z. Jacobson et al., ‘Low-cost solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity for 145 countries’, Energy Environ. Sci., vol. 15, no. 8, pp. 3343–3359, Aug. 2022, doi: 10.1039/D2EE00722C.
[4] ‘A near 100 per cent renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage | RenewEconomy’. Accessed: May 03, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewables-grid-is-well-within-reach-and-with-little-storage/
[5] ‘The Cleantech Revolution’, RMI. Accessed: Jun. 13, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://rmi.org/insight/the-cleantech-revolution/
[6] Bill Nussey, ‘Freeing Energy Home Page Bill Nussey’, Freeing Energy. Accessed: May 06, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.freeingenergy.com/
[7] Grand Transitions: How the Modern World Was Made Vac https://vaclavsmil.com/2021/03/05/grand-transitions-how-the-modern-world-was-made/
