Batteries end fossil fuel era! Many don’t appreciate that batteries are key to renewable energy and the end of the fossil fuel era in electricity and for transportation. Batteries enable storage of electricity. We have never had sufficiently cheap and abundant batteries to generate electricity and store it. We have spatial separation with transmission in one location and using electricity at another. Generating electricity now but using it later is very limited. Hydro-electricity does time shift electricity but limited. Fossil fuel gas and coal plants or nuclear plants cannot respond quickly enough. Uses need an exact amount of electricity at the right time. Millisecond by millisecond. Batteries can provide that service.
AEMO reported 27% of Australias electricity solar was “curtailed”. Big solar and wind farms shut down and did not generate electricity, even though there was free sun and wind. That electricity could have been stored and used after dark, when solar shut off and instead, fossil fuel was burnt. The rise of batteries enables more free electricity, lowering your electricity bill, and enabling electrification of transport and keeping oil in the ground.
Latest 4680 Battery Update from Tesla
Tesla announced production of their 100 millionth new battery – the 4680. Some might say ho-hum, but its a good example of long it can take from development in the lab until full production. What you see below is an exponential rise in the production of the new 4680. Tesla acquired the technology in 2019, announced in 2020 the new 4680 sized can, with 5x energy, 6x the power and 20% extra range. For the past 4 years Tesla has tried to make it work. They almost gave up. But then engineers have made magic happen. Their battery will be used in high performance cars and trucks. That leaves more of the less advanced batteries to be made into grid batteries.
Which over the next 4 years will mean we don’t waste free electricity.
Ramp of 4680 Battery
4680 production milestones announced by Tesla
- October 20, 2023 = 20 millionth cell
- June 8, 2024 = 50 millionth cell
- That’s 30M cells 8 months.
- September 13, 2024 = 100 millionth cell
- That’s 50M cells in 3 months.
This exponential rise is what catches people out. If you look fro 2016 to 2022 – nothing. From 2022 to
History of 4680 Battery.
Batteries are a mix of physical, chemical and a touch of magic. There are really only four physical components
- Electrodes (anode, cathode)
- Electrolyte
- Separator
- Case and terminals.
To be more than just a AAA alkaline battery you buy for a few cents, they also need
- Heating and cooling system
- Monitoring (voltage, temperature, state of charge estimation, state of health estimation)
- Balancing within a battery pack
- Electrical connections
- Protection
- Inverters
- Software and control systems.
All of these components have engineering challenges, from sourcing the materials to manufacture of them, to the end of life processes including recycling and reuse. It is not surprising that battery technology continues to improve by 20% per year given there are so many levers to pull. In context we are probably 20% on the journey, and have much to go. This is not a mature industry, so expect a constant stream of “whats new” and the latest breakthroughs.
Many battery improvements take years in the labs and then years to get from lab to manufacturing at scale.
Dry and Solid State Battery Improvements
Tesla acquired dry battery electrode (DBE) technology from Maxwell in 2019. The dry electrode coating manufacturing process allows massive cost reduction during the manufacturing of Li-ion cells. Traditionally, battery electrodes are a slurry that needs to be dried for the final assembly process. This process is slow and energy-hungry. That’s why DBE can potentially lower production costs by 50% or more. Tesla used an expensive positive electrode (cathode) with a traditional (wet) electrode purchased from LG and two other Chinese companies.
By mid 2024, it appeared they finally got the manufacturing process resolved for both anode and cathode. Most battery manufacturers around the world need magic.
References
- Australia ‘wasting’ record amounts of renewable energy as share of wind and solar soars https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-08/renewable-energy-wasted-as-australia-greens/104321770
- Tesla Press Announements 100 million 4680 https://x.com/TSLAFanMtl/status/1835023218316370168
