In a previous post, we looked at EV trucks and saw that progress was slow but globally, reports are that EV Truck uptake surges.The number of trucks in China has increased by ten times driven by a scrappage program. Tesla is looking to have 50,000 per year by the end of 2026. Volvo is selling some trucks. The biggest rise is in China, driven by incentives but also the
Europe
Volvo delivered its first all electric semi truck 2019. Since then, Volvo customers in more than 50 countries around the world have logged more than 100 million miles (170 million km – and almost half of that in the last 14 months as the size of its deployed fleet grows) in real-world commercial operations, eliminating massive amounts of CO2 and NOx emissions and reducing traffic noise. All the while, they’re making life a little cleaner and quieter for the people who live and work near the roads they travel.
Volvo Trucks has established itself as the leader in the heavy electric truck segment for the last five consecutive years with a 47% market share, though the story is a bit different the US and Canada. Volvo’s share of the electric truck segment was “just” 40% in 2024.
USA
Tesla has almost completed the construction of building for a specific factory in Reno, Nevada to make up to 50,000 Tesla Semis each year. [1] [3] Total number of preproduction is about 150.
China EV Truck
China’s heavy truck sales are expected to experience a significant shift towards electric vehicles (EVs), with projections indicating that EVs could account for half of the market by 2028. This anticipated increase from just 10% in 2024 was reported by Reuters, citing CATL chairman. CATL has recently launched a 60 gigawatt-hour energy storage and EV battery production base in Shandong, marking the company’s first such facility in northern China. Shandong’s local government aims to build a lithium battery sector worth $14bn by year-end. In 2024, China’s electric truck sales experienced a significant surge, more than doubling to reach 75,000 vehicles, representing over 80% of global electric truck sales for that year. A new scrappage scheme for conventional trucks partly drove this growth.
Compelling Economics
Let us look at an example of the trucking sector in Australia. There are about 250,000 truck drivers, of all truck sizes. There is a driver shortage of about 28,000. The six-wheeler truck fleet may have about 80,000 drivers, and to put it into context, is twice the number employed in mining. [1]
Breakdown of Trucking Costs 2021
In 2021, the breakdown of annual costs for running the truck are about $AU0.5 million per year
- Driver labour was $195,000,
- Fuel-related $129,000
- Vehicle $74,000
- Maintenance and tyres $67,000,
- Registration $6,000
- Miscellaneous costs of $15,000.
A switch to autonomous electric trucks, such as the Tesla Semi would be appealing with 50% of costs gone, but the fleet operator would be struggling to raise the capital needed to replace the fleet. Whereas, if humanoid robots with a driving app cost $50,000, economics are compelling. Is it possible? Tesla, Waymo, or PonyAI could transfer their self-driving vehicle application to a humanoid robots, and create a market to replace 60 million truck drivers globally. For every driver replaced with a humanoid robot, owners get their money back in 3 months.
References
- Zanegler Tesla Semi Advocate www.youtube.com/@ZaneglerTeslaSemiStalker-vt3or
- Volvo delivers 5,000th electric semi with little fanfare, sending a BIG message 2025 https://electrek.co/2025/06/29/volvo-delivers-5000th-electric-semi-with-little-fanfare-sending-a-big-message/
- Tesla expects to begin mass production of electric Semi by year-end https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tesla-expects-to-begin-mass-production-of-electric-semi-by-year-end
- Global EV Outlook 2025 IEA https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/executive-summary
