Australia has some fuel and labour truck costs, revised from 2012 to 2021. For a comparison on Tesla Semi compelling economics see a previous post.
The fuel cost is 27%. Labour costs of operation is over 40%. Bring on Autonomous vehicles.
| Cost Category | 2012 Model Estimates | 2021 Model Estimates | Percent of Total Costs | Key Changes from Previous Modles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour costs | 119 | 193 | 40% | – The weekly wage has been updated to reflect 2020 award wages – Inclusion of superannuation, workers compensation, leave loading, ad meal allowance |
| Fuel related costs | 163 | 129 | 27% | – Fuel efficiency updated to reflect most recent ABS SMVU data – Pump price excluding fuel excise has decreased ($1.99 per litre to $0.99 per litre) – RUC has remained largely the same ($0.255 to $0.258 per litre) – Inclusion of Adblue costs ($0.02 per litre) |
| Vehicle/capital related costs | 71 | 74 | 15% | – Related inputs updated to reflect information from truck sales websites and stakeholder feedback – Financing rate reduced from 7.75% to 6% – Inclusion of stamp duty |
| Maintenance and tyre costs | 60 | 67 | 14% | – Related inputs updated to reflect information from relevant guidelines and stakeholder feedback |
| Registration charge | 5 | 6 | 1% | – Updated to reflect most recent registration charges |
| Other costs | 5 | 15 | 3% | – Related inputs updated to reflect information from relevant guidelines and stakeholder feedback |
| Total costs | 423 | 484 | ||
| https://www.ntc.gov.au/sites/default/files/assets/files/Heavy vehicle operating cost model update note – for consultation purposes only.pdf | ||||
Will Humanoid Robots take Over
Let us look at an example of a the trucking sector in Australia. There are about 250,000 truck drivers, of all truck sizes. There is a driver shortage of about 28,000. The six-wheeler truck fleet may have about 80,000 drivers and to put it into context is twice the number employed in mining.
- A switch to autonomous electric trucks, such as the Tesla Semi would be appealing with 50% of costs gone, but the fleet operator would be struggling to raise the capital needed to replace the fleet.
- If humanoid robots with a driving app cost $50,000, economics are compelling. Is it possible?
- Tesla, Waymo, or PonyAI could transfer their self-driving vehicle application to a humanoid robots, and create a market to replace 60 million truck drivers globally.
- For every driver replaced with a humanoid robot, owners get their money back in 3 months.
- This application of humanoid robots is complex, theoretical and may never happen but economics are compelling.
References
- Heavy Vehicle Operating Cost Model Update Note. https://www.ntc.gov.au/sites/default/files/assets/files/Heavy vehicle operating cost model update note – for consultation purposes only.pdf
- Heavy vehicle operating cost model update note – for consultation purposes only.pdf
