It’s about cost + adoption. Autonomous driving is a futuristic concept that requires a ton of public education. A sleek, futuristic car with *no steering wheel* running autonomously is the best ad for self-driving. Makes total sense to me that $TSLA saw a significant jump in FSD adoption post 10/10 (Source: 3Q earnings call). Cybercab will cost around $25k, with 5x better cycle times and reduced parts, making it an efficient choice for scaling.

Most tracker data comes from user-reported disengagement. When sitting in the driver’s seat, you naturally feel more responsible, leading to a stronger urge to intervene. But this doesn’t mean every disengagement was necessary to avoid an accident. 

The experience sitting in the passenger seat (like in $Waymo) feels entirely different—”out of sight, out of mind.”

Apart from fast production, it likely has to do with regulation. As Elon mentioned, each state has its own requirements for whether a safety driver is needed to get approval, and using existing models like the Model 3/Y allows Tesla to adapt more quickly to these differences.

Expect to see households reduce from 2 cars per household to one. On one hand, robotaxis lower the cost of ownership, making it more accessible and driving adoption. Plus, your car could generate income for you (+ve for ownership). On the other hand, with autonomous fleets available, the need to own a car could diminish. First will be second car, and then both cars.

It’s not just passenger cars getting autonomous—Elon mentioned Semi trucks will also become autonomous! This could disrupt industries like logistics, freight, and transportation, with major implications for shipping costs, delivery times, and employment in those sectors.

Federal law should create single law in USA, but states want control of their own laws.

They’re at a tipping point. Hardware and software with AI has advanced improvement that existing software development could not have. The value of autonomy is about to be fully realised. Truly a “many companies in one”

When 2M-4M Cybercabs are on the road, it’ll feel like living in a sci-fi movie—armies of robots around us reshaping the future

In the USA, less than 600,000 taxis and 1 m ride share are used. With a fleet of 3 million, change could be rapid. If the new designed robotaxi is at 30,000 per week, that means total market could be saturated within a year.

Classifying and interpreting disengagement data is difficult, and people can skew the data to fit their narrative. Need to stay with documented data.